Tuesday morning update: We'd hoped for more clarification overnight and early this morning on the potential for a windstorm tomorrow...but we didn't get much. Some of the guidance still suggests a strong windstorm for much of the region, while others are still holding out that we won't get much wind at all. But with ~24 hours left, I think it's prudent to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. This is one of those situations where I hope I'm wrong!
I've attached a graphic from the NWS Seattle that highlights the amount of uncertainty there still is...Scott Sistek has a great in-depth look at why that is, which I'll link to in the comments - but the gist is, there's basically two potential scenarios. Let's take a look at both of them.
Worst-case scenario: the storm races north up the West Coast today and tomorrow, and strengthens on its way. This would bring fairly strong winds from northern California, through the Willamette Valley, and up into the Puget Sound, with peak wind gusts from the south around 60mph across the Puget Sound. Winds would increase quite suddenly mid- to late-morning tomorrow (Wednesday), before tapering off by the evening - a quick-hitter, and in the daylight, if that's any comfort! The NWS Seattle has issued a High Wind Watch for most of the Puget Sound region - but not including the Plateau at this point - to highlight this possibility. Better safe than sorry, in my book! (A "Watch" basically means the ingredients are in place for something to happen, but it's not currently happening.)
Best-case scenario: the storm doesn't get too strong, and/or it moves inland somewhere in Oregon, making it even weaker. In this scenario, the worst we'd get is some breezy winds mid-day tomorrow, but nothing to worry about.
As for my un-scientific opinion (aka "my gut feeling")...I think we'll get something in the middle. I don't think this will turn out to be a memorable storm, like some of the guidance indicates - but I also don't think it's going to turn out to be nothing. Like I mentioned earlier, at this point, I'm personally getting prepped for the possibility of a decent windstorm...and if that turns out to jinx it, I'm okay with that!
More updates to follow!
Tuesday afternoon update: Under 24 hours to go until this potential windstorm. Before we get into potential impacts, let's talk about the timing, since there is a bit more confidence in that aspect!
Speaking very generically here...winds should start off from the east during the morning hours. These don't look very impactful, just the appetizer for what could come later. By midday, they'll swing around to come from the south. The window for peak winds looks to be the early/mid-afternoon hours, tapering off by the evening...and it's all over by bedtime.
This is going to be one of those "nowcasting" situations - one positive (if you can call it that) is that we'll be able to see it coming. The storm will impact northern California and Oregon before it makes it up to Washington, so we'll be able to make last-minute adjustments and preparations late tonight / early tomorrow morning as we see what's happening. Speaking of, it's already beginning to develop off the coast of California, so we can watch it on satellite view to see how it's actually developing, rather than just looking at what the computer models think is going to happen.
Now...about potential impacts. Again, the forecast guidance still hasn't narrowed in on a consistent track or intensity yet - but now that the storm is beginning to develop, the computer models should (finally) be able to nail down some details. Rather than talking about "boom" or "bust" scenarios, let's swap analogies to the "ceiling" and the "floor": with yesterday's forecasts, the "ceiling" was very strong winds, while the "floor" was basically a light breeze. As of this afternoon, the "ceiling" isn't quite as crazy-strong, but the floor is higher too. Worst-case scenario (which, to be clear, I don't think is very likely) calls for ~60 mph wind gusts around the Puget Sound area. Best-case scenario, 20-30 mph wind gusts. Still plenty of time for things to change up or down...but I'm currently leaning towards peak gusts around the Plateau in the 30-40 mph range. That's more in-line with a "regular windstorm" for the area, but still nothing to discount either!
One more disclaimer: even though there's not a lot of time left, there are still plenty of ways for this to go one way or another...still, I think it's best to prepare for potential impacts, while hoping for just another breezy day.
More updates to come tonight!
Tuesday evening update: Confidence is increasing in a decent windstorm tomorrow...but a "major" windstorm is becoming less likely.
The National Weather Service has issued two different products for much of western Washington: a High Wind Warning for places like Seattle, Bellevue, Redmond, and downtown Issaquah; and a Wind Advisory for the foothills, including Sammamish, Carnation, Fall City, Snoqualmie, and North Bend.
- High Wind Warning: in effect from 10am to 7pm - calling for winds from the south at 20 to 30 mph, with gusts 50 to 60 mph.
- Wind Advisory: in effect from 4am to 7pm, highlighting the difference in winds from the east during the morning hours, and from the south after noon - morning east winds 15 to 25 mph, with gusts up to 45 mph; afternoon south winds 20 to 30 mph, with gusts up to 50 mph.
For around the Plateau specifically, those numbers in the Wind Advisory are definitely plausible. All-in-all, this seems to be shaping up to be a decent region-wide windstorm. But again, still room for it to either over-perform or under-perform...though as the storm continues to develop off the California coast and makes its way north, we'll be able to do some "nowcasting" to hopefully dial it in a tad more.
As for timing: winds from the east pick up early morning, but honestly don't look too out-of-the-ordinary once they make it towards us - it'll be windier in Snoqualmie and North Bend though. A bit after noon, the winds from the south scoot into the area - a rather sudden shift, and increase in speed. The window for peak gusts lasts into the mid-afternoon, before tapering off by dinner-time.
Back in the morning with more updates!