Fire Weather Outlook
— Day 3-8
Synopsis
A large scale upper trough will move onshore the West Coast as ridging slides over the eastern CONUS on Day 3/Tuesday. Precipitation will be possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Appalachians with an associated shortwave trough on Day 4/Wednesday. However, much of the Piedmont into the Southeast will remain fairly dry through the week as surface high pressure builds across the region through Day 6/Friday. As the aforementioned trough and associated mid-level flow progress eastward into the northern Plains mid-week, fire weather concerns are expected to reemerge across portions of the Southwest and High Plains. Through the end of the forecast period, persistent western troughing will likely maintain continued fire weather concerns where dry fuels exist.
Florida, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast
A fire weather threat will continue for portions of Florida on Day 3/Tuesday as surface high pressure settles into the Deep South. Breezy easterly winds of up to 10 mph (gusts up to 15 mph) and RH values between 15-30 percent amid 90-99th percentile ERCs support 40% Critical probabilities. On Day 4/Wednesday, a shortwave impulse will bring precipitation chances across portions of the Mid-Atlantic along a weak cold front. Ahead of the front, strong mid-level flow aloft will support dry and breezy downslope conditions where 97th-99th percentile ERCs have been observed across the Carolinas. 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced to account for this threat.
Central and Southern Plains
A deepening surface low across the northern High Plains ahead of the approaching upper-level trough and associated southwest flow aloft will bring a more expansive fire weather threat to much of the High Plains and portions of the Southwest mid-week where fuels remain receptive. 70% critical probabilities have been maintained for Day 4/Wednesday where a mid-level jet aligns with tightening surface pressure gradients associated with the deepening lee trough. Downslope enhanced drying and stronger west/southwest winds will continue across much of the Southwest and Southern Plains on Day 5/Thursday as the mid-level trough ejects into the Plains. Broad 40% critical probabilities were maintained for the Southwest and Southern Plains.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/19/2026
000 FNUS28 KWNS 192146 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0444 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... A large scale upper trough will move onshore the West Coast as ridging slides over the eastern CONUS on Day 3/Tuesday. Precipitation will be possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Appalachians with an associated shortwave trough on Day 4/Wednesday. However, much of the Piedmont into the Southeast will remain fairly dry through the week as surface high pressure builds across the region through Day 6/Friday. As the aforementioned trough and associated mid-level flow progress eastward into the northern Plains mid-week, fire weather concerns are expected to reemerge across portions of the Southwest and High Plains. Through the end of the forecast period, persistent western troughing will likely maintain continued fire weather concerns where dry fuels exist. ...Day 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday... ...Florida, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast... A fire weather threat will continue for portions of Florida on Day 3/Tuesday as surface high pressure settles into the Deep South. Breezy easterly winds of up to 10 mph (gusts up to 15 mph) and RH values between 15-30 percent amid 90-99th percentile ERCs support 40% Critical probabilities. On Day 4/Wednesday, a shortwave impulse will bring precipitation chances across portions of the Mid-Atlantic along a weak cold front. Ahead of the front, strong mid-level flow aloft will support dry and breezy downslope conditions where 97th-99th percentile ERCs have been observed across the Carolinas. 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced to account for this threat. ...Central and Southern Plains... A deepening surface low across the northern High Plains ahead of the approaching upper-level trough and associated southwest flow aloft will bring a more expansive fire weather threat to much of the High Plains and portions of the Southwest mid-week where fuels remain receptive. 70% critical probabilities have been maintained for Day 4/Wednesday where a mid-level jet aligns with tightening surface pressure gradients associated with the deepening lee trough. Downslope enhanced drying and stronger west/southwest winds will continue across much of the Southwest and Southern Plains on Day 5/Thursday as the mid-level trough ejects into the Plains. Broad 40% critical probabilities were maintained for the Southwest and Southern Plains. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$