Fire Weather Outlook
— Day 1
Southern High Plains
The eastern extent of the Elevated risk area has been trimmed back slightly across western OK and the TX Rolling Plains. This is to account for recently observed precipitation, marginal fuels, and lighter surface winds during peak heating. In the lee of the southern Rockies, poor overnight humidity recoveries are expected to further exacerbate the local fire environment. Morning observations portray 30 mph wind gusts and less than 25 percent RH in gap flow areas with clear skies overhead. As deeper mixing occurs this afternoon, RH is expected to bottom out around 10 percent locally atop very dry fuels.
Eastern WY/NE Panhandle/southwestern SD
Westerly winds of 10-20 mph combined with RH of 20-25 percent will promote locally elevated fire weather conditions for a few hours this afternoon in sporadic areas that did not see recent precipitation. Increasing mid-level cloud cover this afternoon is expected to maintain marginal RH values, precluding the introduction of Elevated highlights.
The rest of the forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/15/2026
Synopsis
The upper-level trough will depart the southern Plains through the day today. A weak lee trough will develop in the High Plains. Dry return flow will continue in the southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic.
Southern High Plains
Modest mid-level winds across the southern Rockies will promote a weak lee trough to the east. Surface winds of 15 to locally 20 mph are possible amid a dry airmass (10-20% RH by the afternoon). Elevated fire weather is expected given continued lack of rainfall and dry fuels.
Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic
Dry and breezy conditions are expected during the afternoon as temperatures warm into the mid 80s to low 90s F. RH of 25-35% is probable for most areas, but values closer to 20% may occur locally. Very dry fuels will support an elevated fire weather threat.
000 FNUS21 KWNS 151633 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Southern High Plains... The eastern extent of the Elevated risk area has been trimmed back slightly across western OK and the TX Rolling Plains. This is to account for recently observed precipitation, marginal fuels, and lighter surface winds during peak heating. In the lee of the southern Rockies, poor overnight humidity recoveries are expected to further exacerbate the local fire environment. Morning observations portray 30 mph wind gusts and less than 25 percent RH in gap flow areas with clear skies overhead. As deeper mixing occurs this afternoon, RH is expected to bottom out around 10 percent locally atop very dry fuels. ...Eastern WY/NE Panhandle/southwestern SD... Westerly winds of 10-20 mph combined with RH of 20-25 percent will promote locally elevated fire weather conditions for a few hours this afternoon in sporadic areas that did not see recent precipitation. Increasing mid-level cloud cover this afternoon is expected to maintain marginal RH values, precluding the introduction of Elevated highlights. The rest of the forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/15/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will depart the southern Plains through the day today. A weak lee trough will develop in the High Plains. Dry return flow will continue in the southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern High Plains... Modest mid-level winds across the southern Rockies will promote a weak lee trough to the east. Surface winds of 15 to locally 20 mph are possible amid a dry airmass (10-20% RH by the afternoon). Elevated fire weather is expected given continued lack of rainfall and dry fuels. ...Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic... Dry and breezy conditions are expected during the afternoon as temperatures warm into the mid 80s to low 90s F. RH of 25-35% is probable for most areas, but values closer to 20% may occur locally. Very dry fuels will support an elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$