Plateau Weather

Fire Weather Outlook

— Day 2
Office: KWNS Issued: Apr 15, 2026 at 2:35 PM CDT FWD
Product imagery

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS

Central/southern High Plains

Critical fire weather highlights have been introduced across eastern CO into portions of the southern High Plains. Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) amid 10-15 percent RH (single digits locally) are expected atop very dry and receptive fuels, increasing critical fire weather concerns. While high clouds are anticipated later in the afternoon, ongoing poor humidity recoveries and dry/breezy conditions on Day 1/Wednesday will promote an earlier start to the fire environment on Day 2/Thursday. Farther north, Elevated highlights have been expanded to encompass much of the High Plains. Widespread south/southwesterly winds of up to 20 mph and RH of 15-20 percent will overspread a region of 80th-95th percentile ERCs. An abrupt northerly wind shift is expected as a sharp cold front progresses southeastward in the early evening, potentially impacting active fires. However, chances for light precipitation, colder temperatures, and increasing RH will provide relief to the fire environment overnight for much of the central High Plains.

Mid-Atlantic/Piedmont

Elevated highlights have been trimmed to only include areas east of the Appalachian Mountains as latest model guidance suggests higher RH trends Thursday afternoon in the eastern TN Valley. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track as multiple days of above normal temperatures and dry/breezy conditions have contributed to very dry fuels with widespread 90th-99th percentile ERCs. Southwesterly winds of 10 mph or greater (gusts of 20+ mph) and 25-35 percent RH will support elevated fire weather concerns across the region.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Williams.. 04/15/2026

Synopsis

An upper-level trough will dig into the southern Great Basin/Four Corners on Thursday. A modest subtropical jet stream will develop across northern Mexico into the southern Plains. At the surface, a strong low pressure system will deepen in the vicinity of the Black Hills. A fairly strong cold front will progress southward into the central Plains.

Southern New Mexico into central High Plains

This region will generally exist in between the developing southern stream jet and the digging trough to the northwest for most of the period. Some increase in mid-level winds may occur by late afternoon, however. A very dry airmass is expected. RH could approach single digits locally, but will more broadly be 10-20%. This is forecast despite increasing mid/upper clouds with time. The overall expectation is for elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. Sustained critical could occur locally, but confidence highlighting where this will occur remains low.

Far eastern Wyoming into Nebraska/South Dakota

As the surface low deepens, winds of 15-20 mph will be possible. RH values of 10-20% will occur during the afternoon. The strongest mid-level flow will generally remain farther west of the region which should limit the potential for sustained critical conditions. Further, the cold front is forecast to progress southward which will lead to a stark shift to northerly winds and greater RH. Given the strength of the front, the more southern frontal solutions have been weighted higher in this forecast.

Southern Appalachians into Mid-Atlantic

The persistent dry return flow pattern will continue another day. Temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s F will again promote a broad area of reduced RH values during the afternoon. 25-35% will again be common, but areas near 20% are still possible. Winds will still be somewhat weak at 10-15 mph, but very dry fuels will still support a elevated fire weather threat.