Forecast Discussion
— ExtendedOverview
Mean troughing over the Western and Central U.S. will promote active weather across portions of the Southern Plains, Mississippi Valley and Northeast this weekend. An upper-level ridge will strengthen over the Eastern half of the country, leading to average to above average temperatures for the region. A pair of deep East Pacific troughs will bring more rain showers and gusty winds to the Northwest beginning this weekend.
Guidance/Predictability Assessment
Models generally agree on the timing of the first in a series of West Coast troughs, though have notable spread on the intensity of it as well as the timing and intensity of the second mid-level low that follows it early next week. The GFS and Euro AiFS cluster well throughout the medium range period and thus make up the foundation of the days 3-7 blends. UKMET and and Canadian are incorporated in the blend on days 3 and 4, before ensemble means are introduced on day 5 to mitigate some of the spread regarding the second West Coast trough.
Weather/Hazards Highlights
An elongated surface front draped across the northern tier of the country will generate showers and thunderstorms across the Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend. Skies clear out a bit as high pressure builds in the wake of the cold front. An amplifying upper ridge over the Eastern U.S. will supply warm southerly flow into the region. Overnight lows struggling to drop below the 70s will likely contribute to some moderate to major (levels 2-3 out of 4) heat risk over portions of the Mid- Atlantic Coast this Friday and Saturday night.
Waves of deep upper level troughs will bring multiple rounds of rain showers to the Northwest this weekend and again on Tuesday. Small mid- level vortices emanating from Mexico will propagate north through the Southern Plains, late this weekend into early next week. These weak impulses will interact with some Gulf moisture and spread scattered showers and thunderstorms across parts of the Southern Plains and Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley, where isolated flash flooding is possible this weekend.
Kebede
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at:
000 FXUS02 KWBC 030807 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 407 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026 Valid 12Z Sat Jun 06 2026 - 12Z Wed Jun 10 2026 ...Overview... Mean troughing over the Western and Central U.S. will promote active weather across portions of the Southern Plains, Mississippi Valley and Northeast this weekend. An upper-level ridge will strengthen over the Eastern half of the country, leading to average to above average temperatures for the region. A pair of deep East Pacific troughs will bring more rain showers and gusty winds to the Northwest beginning this weekend. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Models generally agree on the timing of the first in a series of West Coast troughs, though have notable spread on the intensity of it as well as the timing and intensity of the second mid-level low that follows it early next week. The GFS and Euro AiFS cluster well throughout the medium range period and thus make up the foundation of the days 3-7 blends. UKMET and and Canadian are incorporated in the blend on days 3 and 4, before ensemble means are introduced on day 5 to mitigate some of the spread regarding the second West Coast trough. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... An elongated surface front draped across the northern tier of the country will generate showers and thunderstorms across the Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend. Skies clear out a bit as high pressure builds in the wake of the cold front. An amplifying upper ridge over the Eastern U.S. will supply warm southerly flow into the region. Overnight lows struggling to drop below the 70s will likely contribute to some moderate to major (levels 2-3 out of 4) heat risk over portions of the Mid- Atlantic Coast this Friday and Saturday night. Waves of deep upper level troughs will bring multiple rounds of rain showers to the Northwest this weekend and again on Tuesday. Small mid- level vortices emanating from Mexico will propagate north through the Southern Plains, late this weekend into early next week. These weak impulses will interact with some Gulf moisture and spread scattered showers and thunderstorms across parts of the Southern Plains and Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley, where isolated flash flooding is possible this weekend. Kebede Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$