Forecast Discussion
— Short Range
Thunderstorm chances return to portions of the Upper Midwest and central/southern Plains Thursday with severe weather and isolated flash flooding possible ?
...Gusty winds and warm, very dry conditions will lead to a Critical Risk of fire weather across much of the High Plains Wednesday into Thursday...
An incoming deep upper-trough and associated surface frontal system from the Pacific will bring a wide range of impacts including snow, severe weather, heavy rainfall, and a threat for wildfires from the western to central U.S. mid- to late week. Precipitation chances will first spread further inland from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Basin and Rockies today (Wednesday), with showers and thunderstorms for lower elevations and heavy snow for higher elevations, particularly the mountains of the northern Rockies. The snow will continue for the northern Rockies into Thursday and Friday, with totals of 6-12"+ expected. Some snow may also mix in for the mountain valleys and adjacent High Plains of Montana as temperatures cool Thursday, though little to no accumulations are expected. The upper-trough and cold front will also begin to push into portions of the northern/central Plains by later tonight as well, with an isolated threat for some thunderstorms. Then, on Thursday, strengthening wind fields as the upper-trough spreads further eastward and increased moist, unstable air from the south will lead to more widespread, robust thunderstorms across the Upper Midwest southwest through the Missouri Valley and into portions of the central/southern Plains. A Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) is in place from the Storm Prediction Center for the threat of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, locally heavy rainfall will be possible, with an isolated threat for flash flooding. The severe weather/isolated flash flood threat is expected to shift into the ArkLaTex/Ozarks region east into the Lower Mississippi Valley Friday. Deepening lee troughing east of the Rockies will also lead to strong, gusty downsloping winds and warm, very dry conditions, prompting a widespread Critical Risk of fire weather (level 2/3) from the SPC today across much of the High Plains. This threat will continue into Thursday but with the focus shifting to the southern High Plains.
Another round of thunderstorms is expected along the Gulf Coast of Texas into Louisiana today as southerly flow brings in deep moisture from the Gulf. Some locally heavy downpours and isolated flash flooding will remain possible. Elsewhere, some scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along a frontal boundary through the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic today. An upper-wave will also bring some scattered showers to New England later today and into early Thursday, with a wintry mix possible for interior locations. The progressive pattern will bring variable temperatures across the country over the next couple of days, with warmer, above average temperatures generally shifting eastward and cooler, below average temperatures expanding over the western to north-central U.S. An upper-ridge ahead of the western upper-trough will lead to well above average conditions across the northern/central Plains and into the Midwest today, as highs soar into the 80s for many. A few highs into the 90s will be possible for portions of the northern Plains. Conditions will continue to moderate and rise above average across the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and along the southern tier from the southern Plains into the Southeast following a cooler start to the week, with highs into the 70s and 80s. New England will remain cooler and below average north of a frontal boundary, with highs generally hovering around the 50s. Meanwhile, the eastward moving upper-trough/cold front will bring an area of much cooler temperatures eastward. Forecast highs today along the West Coast will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s and 50s spreading into the Interior West. The cold front will then bring a sharp plunge in temperatures into portions of the northern/central Plains Thursday into Friday as highs drop into the 40s and 50s here as well. Conditions will gradually moderate to the west following the passage of the upper-trough on Thursday, with highs rising into the 70s along the West Coast and 60s for the Interior West.
Putnam
000 FXUS01 KWBC 220732 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 332 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026 Valid 12Z Wed Apr 22 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 24 2026 ...Heavy snow expected for higher elevations of the northern Rockies the next few days... ...Thunderstorm chances return to portions of the Upper Midwest and central/southern Plains Thursday with severe weather and isolated flash flooding possible... ...Gusty winds and warm, very dry conditions will lead to a Critical Risk of fire weather across much of the High Plains Wednesday into Thursday... An incoming deep upper-trough and associated surface frontal system from the Pacific will bring a wide range of impacts including snow, severe weather, heavy rainfall, and a threat for wildfires from the western to central U.S. mid- to late week. Precipitation chances will first spread further inland from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Basin and Rockies today (Wednesday), with showers and thunderstorms for lower elevations and heavy snow for higher elevations, particularly the mountains of the northern Rockies. The snow will continue for the northern Rockies into Thursday and Friday, with totals of 6-12"+ expected. Some snow may also mix in for the mountain valleys and adjacent High Plains of Montana as temperatures cool Thursday, though little to no accumulations are expected. The upper-trough and cold front will also begin to push into portions of the northern/central Plains by later tonight as well, with an isolated threat for some thunderstorms. Then, on Thursday, strengthening wind fields as the upper-trough spreads further eastward and increased moist, unstable air from the south will lead to more widespread, robust thunderstorms across the Upper Midwest southwest through the Missouri Valley and into portions of the central/southern Plains. A Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) is in place from the Storm Prediction Center for the threat of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, locally heavy rainfall will be possible, with an isolated threat for flash flooding. The severe weather/isolated flash flood threat is expected to shift into the ArkLaTex/Ozarks region east into the Lower Mississippi Valley Friday. Deepening lee troughing east of the Rockies will also lead to strong, gusty downsloping winds and warm, very dry conditions, prompting a widespread Critical Risk of fire weather (level 2/3) from the SPC today across much of the High Plains. This threat will continue into Thursday but with the focus shifting to the southern High Plains. Another round of thunderstorms is expected along the Gulf Coast of Texas into Louisiana today as southerly flow brings in deep moisture from the Gulf. Some locally heavy downpours and isolated flash flooding will remain possible. Elsewhere, some scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along a frontal boundary through the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic today. An upper-wave will also bring some scattered showers to New England later today and into early Thursday, with a wintry mix possible for interior locations. The progressive pattern will bring variable temperatures across the country over the next couple of days, with warmer, above average temperatures generally shifting eastward and cooler, below average temperatures expanding over the western to north-central U.S. An upper-ridge ahead of the western upper-trough will lead to well above average conditions across the northern/central Plains and into the Midwest today, as highs soar into the 80s for many. A few highs into the 90s will be possible for portions of the northern Plains. Conditions will continue to moderate and rise above average across the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and along the southern tier from the southern Plains into the Southeast following a cooler start to the week, with highs into the 70s and 80s. New England will remain cooler and below average north of a frontal boundary, with highs generally hovering around the 50s. Meanwhile, the eastward moving upper-trough/cold front will bring an area of much cooler temperatures eastward. Forecast highs today along the West Coast will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s and 50s spreading into the Interior West. The cold front will then bring a sharp plunge in temperatures into portions of the northern/central Plains Thursday into Friday as highs drop into the 40s and 50s here as well. Conditions will gradually moderate to the west following the passage of the upper-trough on Thursday, with highs rising into the 70s along the West Coast and 60s for the Interior West. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$