Convective Outlook
— Day 3
Enhanced Risk
Summary
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity Friday into Friday night. A few tornadoes, possibly strong, very large hail, and damaging winds will be possible.
Synopsis and Discussion
An upper trough will move out of the Rockies and into the Plains on Friday, with primary midlevel speed max intensifying from the central Plains into the upper MS Valley. A southern stream system will also intensify the upper-wind pattern from northern Mexico into the southern Plains.
At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from MN into KS Friday morning, progressing roughly to a WI to central MO to northern OK line by 00Z. Meanwhile, a warm front will push north into WI, extending southeastward near Chicago.
Of particular note for this setup are model trends, which have consistently shown the cold front pushing farther east and south than the previous model runs. This results in a lower confidence forecast in terms of the precise area of greatest threat and degree of tornado potential.
Despite these uncertainties, the environment ahead of the cold front will be quite favorable for supercells, with steep midlevel lapse rates, ample shear, and strong instability. These factors will clearly favor very large damaging hail, a risk of tornadoes, and eventually damaging winds. A broad 40-50 kt low-level jet will contribute to favorable low-level shear for tornadoes, and a couple strong tornadoes will be possible prior to the cold front and aggregate outflows undercutting the initial activity. Favored areas for tornadoes will be southern KS into western/northern OK in proximity to the dryline, and farther north into eastern IA and southern WI where SRH will be stronger near the low.
Even if the cold front surges faster than currently indicated, a widespread damaging wind threat could occur. Trends will continue to be monitored as the event nears.
000 ACUS03 KWNS 151933 SWODY3 SPC AC 151932 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity Friday into Friday night. A few tornadoes, possibly strong, very large hail, and damaging winds will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move out of the Rockies and into the Plains on Friday, with primary midlevel speed max intensifying from the central Plains into the upper MS Valley. A southern stream system will also intensify the upper-wind pattern from northern Mexico into the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from MN into KS Friday morning, progressing roughly to a WI to central MO to northern OK line by 00Z. Meanwhile, a warm front will push north into WI, extending southeastward near Chicago. Of particular note for this setup are model trends, which have consistently shown the cold front pushing farther east and south than the previous model runs. This results in a lower confidence forecast in terms of the precise area of greatest threat and degree of tornado potential. Despite these uncertainties, the environment ahead of the cold front will be quite favorable for supercells, with steep midlevel lapse rates, ample shear, and strong instability. These factors will clearly favor very large damaging hail, a risk of tornadoes, and eventually damaging winds. A broad 40-50 kt low-level jet will contribute to favorable low-level shear for tornadoes, and a couple strong tornadoes will be possible prior to the cold front and aggregate outflows undercutting the initial activity. Favored areas for tornadoes will be southern KS into western/northern OK in proximity to the dryline, and farther north into eastern IA and southern WI where SRH will be stronger near the low. Even if the cold front surges faster than currently indicated, a widespread damaging wind threat could occur. Trends will continue to be monitored as the event nears. ..Jewell.. 04/15/2026 $$