Convective Outlook
— Day 3
Summary
Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are expected Friday afternoon into night across portions of the upper Midwest into central Plains.
Synopsis and Discussion
The primary upper-air feature of interest Friday is a short-wave trough, which is forecast to amplify while progressing from the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley and upper Midwest. A cold front associated with at upper-air system is expected to stretch from the upper Midwest through the mid MO Valley into the central High Plains by mid afternoon. That boundary is expected to serve as the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development from afternoon into Friday night.
Upper Midwest Into The Central Plains ?
Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of the Midwest and possibly northern Plains, with that activity expected to decrease in areal coverage through the morning. However, residual cloudiness and convective outflow may slow the destabilization process in areas where the storms linger the longest. Outside of those areas, model guidance indicates the development of moderate to strong instability within the pre-frontal warm sector by mid to late afternoon.
Height falls/forcing for ascent associated with the migratory short-wave trough coupled with low-level convergence along the synoptic front and any remnant outflow boundaries are expected to contribute to an areal increase in storms during the afternoon and evening hours. An associated risk for at least isolated severe weather appears possible in parts of the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes region. Within that broader envelope, a potentially more concentrated zone of severe storms may materialize in the vicinity of the synoptic front from parts of western WI and southern MN into central and eastern NE. There, a favorable overlap of 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and the moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop, supporting organized storm modes capable of mainly large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Some increase in low-level shear is forecast across the mid MO Valley Friday evening, conditionally supporting some tornado risk.
000 ACUS03 KWNS 030849 SWODY3 SPC AC 030848 Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... CORRECTED FOR ERRONEOUS GEOGRAPHICAL REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are expected Friday afternoon into night across portions of the upper Midwest into central Plains. ...Synopsis... The primary upper-air feature of interest Friday is a short-wave trough, which is forecast to amplify while progressing from the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley and upper Midwest. A cold front associated with at upper-air system is expected to stretch from the upper Midwest through the mid MO Valley into the central High Plains by mid afternoon. That boundary is expected to serve as the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development from afternoon into Friday night. ...Upper Midwest into the Central Plains... Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of the Midwest and possibly northern Plains, with that activity expected to decrease in areal coverage through the morning. However, residual cloudiness and convective outflow may slow the destabilization process in areas where the storms linger the longest. Outside of those areas, model guidance indicates the development of moderate to strong instability within the pre-frontal warm sector by mid to late afternoon. Height falls/forcing for ascent associated with the migratory short-wave trough coupled with low-level convergence along the synoptic front and any remnant outflow boundaries are expected to contribute to an areal increase in storms during the afternoon and evening hours. An associated risk for at least isolated severe weather appears possible in parts of the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes region. Within that broader envelope, a potentially more concentrated zone of severe storms may materialize in the vicinity of the synoptic front from parts of western WI and southern MN into central and eastern NE. There, a favorable overlap of 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and the moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop, supporting organized storm modes capable of mainly large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Some increase in low-level shear is forecast across the mid MO Valley Friday evening, conditionally supporting some tornado risk. ..Mead.. 06/03/2026 $$