Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181011
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jul 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the
western Atlantic high pressure ridge north of the basin along
27N-28N, and the Colombian low will continue to support NE to E 
winds pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia 
through early this morning and then again Sat night. Otherwise, 
strong to near- gale force trade winds and rough seas will prevail
across the much of the central Caribbean into early Mon before 
contracting to south of 15N. Rough to very rough seas in the 12 to
14 ft range will develop during the times of peak winds.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 18N, 
moving westward near 15 kt. A 1011 mb surface low is analyzed
behind the wave near 14N27W. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed within 180 nm across the N semicircle of the surface 
low. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 51W-52W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is
noted from 07N to 10.5N between 48W and 55W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 21N16.5W and continues southwestward to a 1011 mb
low pres near 14N27W to 08N43W. The ITCZ extends from 08N43W to 
07.5N51W and then from 07.5N52W to 07.5N59W. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is present from 10N to 14N east of 
22W and from 08.5N to 10.5W and between 54W to 62W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Upper level low pressure across Florida and the far eastern Gulf 
during the past 36-48 hours extends into the lower atmosphere, 
and a weak surface trough is now across the Gulf along 83W-84W. 
The upper low and abundant low level moisture are resulting in 
scattered strong showers and thunderstorms over the NE Gulf 
waters, N of 25N and E of 87.5W. These storms can produce gusty 
winds, frequent lightning and suddenly higher seas. Mariners 
should exercise caution across this area. Local buoys show seas of
2 to 4 ft presently. Elsewhere, 1020 mb high pressure centered 
south of Louisiana dominates the basin, supporting moderate to 
fresh E to SE winds south of a line from the NE Yucatan to SE 
Texas. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. 

For the forecast, low pressure across the eastern Gulf will remain
nearly stationary through the weekend then begin to drift
northward Sun night through early next week, supporting periods 
of active thunderstorms in that region. Elsewhere, weak high 
pressure will dominate, producing gentle to moderate winds and 
slight to moderate seas through the period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features
section for more details. Winds are expected to diminish below
gale-force around sunrise this morning.

The 1025 mb subtropical ridge centered near 28N55W in the central
Atlantic extends westward to Florida, and is forcing strong to 
gale-force easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean, 
with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela. Overnight satellite scatterometer data showed peak 
winds of 34 kt. Rough to very rough seas to 13 ft are found in 
these waters. Fresh to locally strong E winds and seas of 5 to 7
ft are present in the eastern Caribbean, and Windward Passage.
Fresh winds are found across the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, 
light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. 
Isolated showers are found across the SE Caribbean waters, while
scattered moderate convection extends between the Cayman Islands
and the Windward Passage at this time.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure ridge and the Colombian low, will support NE winds 
pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia through near
sunrise this morning and then again Sat night. Otherwise, strong 
to near- gale force trade winds and rough seas will prevail across
the much of the central Caribbean into early Mon, before 
contracting to south of 15N through Tue. East winds will pulse 
fresh to locally strong each evening this weekend in the Windward 
Passage.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak surface trough in the north-central tropical Atlantic
supports isolated showers north of 25N and between 39W and 47W.
Meanwhile, a broad subtropical ridge centered over the central
Atlantic extends westward along 27N-28N to Florida, and sustains 
moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft south of 25N 
and west of 35W, with highest winds and seas between 55W and the
Lesser Antilles. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally 
strong N to NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted north of the 
monsoon trough and east of 30W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and 
seas of 4-7 ft are evident south of the monsoon trough and east of
30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic subtropical 
ridge extends along 27N-28N, and will gradually weaken and drift 
northward this weekend, as a broad surface trough forms E of 50W. 
This trough will shift westward and reach along 65W by Wed. 
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail S of 24N through early Tue,
with gentle winds to the N. Pulsing strong winds are expected 
during the evenings this weekend N of Hispaniola and in the 
Windward Passage.

$$
Stripling