Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030859
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jun 03 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression One-E is centered near 10.2N 127.4W at
03/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are around 10 ft. The depression as 
seen in satellite imagery appears that it has a small, but well-
defined, circulation. Satellite imagery reveals numerous strong 
convection within 60 nm of the center in the W semicircle. 
Numerous moderate strong convection is seen from 09N to 11N 
between 127W and 129W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection depicts what appears to be a broken band-type feature
to the N of the center within 30 nm either side of a line from 
12N124W to 13N127W to 13N130W. Similar convection is to the SE of
the depression from 07N to 09N between 125W and 128W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Tropical Depression One-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public 
Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 89W from 03N N to inland 
the SW portion of Guatemala. It is moving westward at around 5 
kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 240 nm 
E of the wave from 02N to 06N, and within 240 nm W of the 
wave from 04N to 08N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia
southwestward to across eastern Panama and northern Costa Rica, 
and continues southwestward to 09N92W, and northwest from there 
to low pressure of 1010 mb at 13N107W and westward to 11N123W, 
where it briefly pauses. It resumes SW of Tropical Depression 
One-E at 09N131W to low pressure of 1009 mb near 06N138W and
to beyond the area at 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is within 120 nm S of the trough between 
97W-102W, also within 60 nm S of the trough between 93W-97W and 
within 60 nm N and S of the trough between 113W-117W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 120 nm N of the trough between 
117W-123W, and from 03N to 07N between 123W-128W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge that is anchored by a 1027 mb high center 
N of the area near 33N135W stretches southeastward to the 
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge 
and a surface trough along the Gulf of California is maintaining 
mainly moderate NW winds over the Baja California offshore 
waters, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Inside the Gulf of California, 
light to gentle winds prevail, with seas of 1 to 3 ft, except for
higher seas of 3 to 5 ft in the southern portion, and for seas 
pf 5 to 7 ft in long-period S to SW swell near the entrance to 
the Gulf. For the remainder of the offshore waters, light to 
gentle winds dominate along with 5 to 7 ft seas primarily in 
long-period S to SW swell, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, NW swell will move through the waters offshore
Baja California Norte Wed night through early on Sat, decaying 
afterward. An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore 
of Central America and southern Mexico late this week. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late 
this weekend or early next week while it moves slowly 
northwestward or northward.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Mainly light and variable winds are over the Central American 
offshore waters under a weak pressure pattern along with 
moderate seas of 5 to 7 ft in long-period S to SW swell. The
exception is fresh gap winds in the Papagayo region. Gentle 
S to SW winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in long- eriod SW 
swell are over the waters S of the monsoon trough between the 
Galapagos Islands and Ecuador.

For the forecast, long period SW swell will propagate through 
the southern Galapagos adjacent waters tonight, then begin to 
subside Thu afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms are over the offshore waters of southern Nicaragua,
Costa Rica and we Honduras and Panama. This activity is in the 
wake of a slow moving tropical wave. Otherwise, an area of low 
pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central America and 
southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for development of this system thereafter, and a 
tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next 
week while it moves slowly northwestward or northward. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on 
Tropical Depression One-E located about 1260 nm SW of the 
southern tip of Baja California, and that is forecast to become a
tropical storm on Wed over the far western portions of the 
basin. 

Otherwise, high pressure dominates waters N of the monsoon 
trough, with the pressure gradient between the high pressure and 
lower pressure within the monsoon trough generally allowing for 
moderate to locally fresh trade winds N of the monsoon trough to 
25N as depicted in recent scatterometer satellite data passes. 
Seas over these waters are in the 7 to 9 ft range in a mix of 
trade wind waves and NW to N swell. Mainly gentle winds are S of 
the monsoon trough. Seas over these waters are generally 5 to 7 
ft, except for S of the Equator, where long-period southerly 
swell has created rough seas W of about 100W. 

The aforementioned high pressure will weaken some toward the end of 
the week as Tropical Cyclone One-E tracks NW over the western 
portion of the area, resulting a a lessening of the trade winds E
of 130W. These winds will become light and variable from 04N to 
12N between 120W to 130W, with seas subsiding to moderate. Little
change is expected elsewhere.

Tropical Depression One-E is forecast to strengthen to a
tropical storm near 10.8N 128.2W this afternoon with maximum 
sustained winds 25 kt gusts 45 kt, move to near 11.6N 129.3W
late tonight as it gradually strengthens, to near 12.6N 130.6W 
Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, 
to near 13.3N 132.0W late Thu night, to near 13.6N 133.0W Fri 
afternoon and to near 13.7N 133.6W late Fri night. Tropical 
Cyclone One-E will change little in intensity as it moves
over the far western portions of the basin Sat afternoon.

$$
Aguirre