Convective Outlook
— Day 1
No Severe Thunderstorms Forecast
Summary
Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of south Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern California region this afternoon and evening.
Discussion
South Florida: Large-scale pattern will not change appreciably during the upcoming day1 period as broad upper troughing holds across the eastern CONUS with ridging expected over the Great Basin. Cool midlevel temperatures will overspread the FL Peninsula such that modest boundary-layer heating will contribute to sufficient instability for deep convection. Weak height rises and easterly component to low-level flow are not particularly favorable for severe thunderstorms, though a few robust updrafts could generate gusty winds or small hail across the southeastern FL Peninsula.
Southern/Central Plains: Sharp cold front will settle south across OK/TX Panhandle during the day as the center of the surface anticyclone shifts into the Great Lakes. Modest boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of this wind shift across the TX South Plains into southwestern OK which will result in convective temperatures being breached by 22z as temperatures rise into the lower 80s. PW values are not that moist across the southern Plains, but weak low-level warm advection is expected atop the cold boundary layer north of the front. Elevated convection should develop across this region but weak buoyancy does not appear adequate for severe hail with the strongest updrafts.
Northern California region: Modest midlevel height falls will spread across northern CA ahead of a notable upper low that will approach the coast by 02/00z. Left-exit region of 500mb jet is expected to aid ascent across northern CA, and more than adequate instability should materialize for thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings exhibit around 500 J/kg MLCAPE with cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates. The most robust updrafts could generate small hail, but this activity is expected to remain below severe levels.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/01/2026
000 ACUS01 KWNS 010537 SWODY1 SPC AC 010536 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of south Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern California region this afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... South Florida: Large-scale pattern will not change appreciably during the upcoming day1 period as broad upper troughing holds across the eastern CONUS with ridging expected over the Great Basin. Cool midlevel temperatures will overspread the FL Peninsula such that modest boundary-layer heating will contribute to sufficient instability for deep convection. Weak height rises and easterly component to low-level flow are not particularly favorable for severe thunderstorms, though a few robust updrafts could generate gusty winds or small hail across the southeastern FL Peninsula. Southern/Central Plains: Sharp cold front will settle south across OK/TX Panhandle during the day as the center of the surface anticyclone shifts into the Great Lakes. Modest boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of this wind shift across the TX South Plains into southwestern OK which will result in convective temperatures being breached by 22z as temperatures rise into the lower 80s. PW values are not that moist across the southern Plains, but weak low-level warm advection is expected atop the cold boundary layer north of the front. Elevated convection should develop across this region but weak buoyancy does not appear adequate for severe hail with the strongest updrafts. Northern California region: Modest midlevel height falls will spread across northern CA ahead of a notable upper low that will approach the coast by 02/00z. Left-exit region of 500mb jet is expected to aid ascent across northern CA, and more than adequate instability should materialize for thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings exhibit around 500 J/kg MLCAPE with cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates. The most robust updrafts could generate small hail, but this activity is expected to remain below severe levels. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/01/2026 $$