Convective Outlook
— Day 2
No Severe Thunderstorms Forecast
Summary
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Monday night across parts of the central U.S., in south Florida, and from the Intermountain West into the central High Plains.
Discussion
A mid-level shortwave ridge will move eastward across the Great Plains on Monday. At the surface, a front will become quasi-stationary across north-central Texas, as a ridge of high pressure remains over Kansas and western Oklahoma. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. Over the top of the post-frontal airmass, south to south-southwest flow will result in moisture advection. As low-level flow strengthens in the evening, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop from northwest Texas to central Kansas. After midnight on the northern edge of a consolidating low-level jet, scattered thunderstorms will be possible from north-central and northeast Kansas eastward into northern Missouri.
Further to the west, additional storms will be possible in the vicinity of a mid-level trough from the Intermountain West into the central High Plains. Isolated storms may also develop in south Florida during the day. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night.
000 ACUS02 KWNS 010635 SWODY2 SPC AC 010634 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Monday night across parts of the central U.S., in south Florida, and from the Intermountain West into the central High Plains. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level shortwave ridge will move eastward across the Great Plains on Monday. At the surface, a front will become quasi-stationary across north-central Texas, as a ridge of high pressure remains over Kansas and western Oklahoma. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. Over the top of the post-frontal airmass, south to south-southwest flow will result in moisture advection. As low-level flow strengthens in the evening, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop from northwest Texas to central Kansas. After midnight on the northern edge of a consolidating low-level jet, scattered thunderstorms will be possible from north-central and northeast Kansas eastward into northern Missouri. Further to the west, additional storms will be possible in the vicinity of a mid-level trough from the Intermountain West into the central High Plains. Isolated storms may also develop in south Florida during the day. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 03/01/2026 $$