Convective Outlook
— Day 3
No Severe Thunderstorms Forecast
Summary
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Tuesday into Tuesday night from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated storms may also develop in south Florida.
Southern And Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley ?
At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge will move eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow becomes southwesterly over the south-central U.S. Further west, an upper-level trough will move through the Four Corners region. At the surface, a moist airmass with surface dewpoints in the 50s and 60s F will advect northward across the southern Plains and Arklatex. A cold front will move southeastward into the central Plains. To the south of the front, an axis of instability is forecast to develop in the afternoon from northwest Texas into southeast Kansas and the northern Ozarks. The airmass is expected to be capped across much of Texas and Oklahoma, although an elevated storm or two will be possible Tuesday night. The greatest chance for storms will be from eastern Kansas into the northern Ozarks, where convective development will be aided by lift associated with the exit region of a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet. Considerable variance exists among the model solutions concerning instability, suggesting that any severe threat will be highly conditional. If moisture return ends up being greater than is currently forecast, a marginal severe threat may need to be added in later outlooks.
000 ACUS03 KWNS 010821 SWODY3 SPC AC 010820 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Tuesday into Tuesday night from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated storms may also develop in south Florida. ...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley... At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge will move eastward into the Ozarks on Tuesday, as flow becomes southwesterly over the south-central U.S. Further west, an upper-level trough will move through the Four Corners region. At the surface, a moist airmass with surface dewpoints in the 50s and 60s F will advect northward across the southern Plains and Arklatex. A cold front will move southeastward into the central Plains. To the south of the front, an axis of instability is forecast to develop in the afternoon from northwest Texas into southeast Kansas and the northern Ozarks. The airmass is expected to be capped across much of Texas and Oklahoma, although an elevated storm or two will be possible Tuesday night. The greatest chance for storms will be from eastern Kansas into the northern Ozarks, where convective development will be aided by lift associated with the exit region of a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet. Considerable variance exists among the model solutions concerning instability, suggesting that any severe threat will be highly conditional. If moisture return ends up being greater than is currently forecast, a marginal severe threat may need to be added in later outlooks. ..Broyles.. 03/01/2026 $$