Forecast Discussion
— Short Range
Record warmth across the Southwest to southern Plains continues while Arctic air filters southward across the northern tier behind a strong cold front ?
A strong cold front pushing across the Northeast early this morning stretching westward across the Ohio Valley and into the southern Plains will remain important to the short range forecast as the clash of two separate air-masses leads to unsettled weather. Light snow is expected to push across the Northeast this morning along this frontal boundary before precipitation refocuses north of this boundary over the central U.S. this afternoon. A mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow is expected to expand across the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley tonight. This wintry mix is then forecast to quickly move eastward across the Ohio Valley overnight into Monday and linger across the central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic early Tuesday morning, where subfreezing temperatures remain locked in place due to pronounced cold-air damming along and just east of the elevated terrain. The primary weather hazards associated with this precipitation are forecast to be associated with light snow and freezing rain, which could lead to periods of slippery travel.
Meanwhile, a separate storm system tracking across the Intermountain West is forecast to bring low-elevation showers and mountain snow to parts of northern California, Oregon, and the Great Basin through Monday before focusing light-to-moderate precipitation across the central Rockies on Tuesday. A few thunderstorms are also for these areas as well. In the Pacific Northwest, tranquil conditions largely prevail until unsettled weather returns by late Tuesday with additional mountain snow and low-elevation rainfall.
Record-breaking warmth kicks off the month of March and meteorological spring across the Southwest today as well above average high temperatures soar into the mid-90s, with highs into the 80s reaching into the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. While the summer-like warmth wanes across the Southwest early this week, above average temperatures are expected to become more widespread across the Great Plains and Ohio/Mississippi Valley by Tuesday. Additionally, numerous daily record highs are forecast across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday as high temperatures rise into the mid-to-upper 80s. Conversely, below average temperatures and arctic cold are forecast to be located north of the aforementioned cold front through Monday across the northern Plains, Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, and Northeast. Here, high temperatures are forecast to struggle to rise out of the teens during the daytime hours, with low temperatures dipping below zero for some locations. Fortunately, this arctic blast is expected to be short-lived as temperatures return to near-average values by Wednesday.
Snell
000 FXUS01 KWBC 010733 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 232 AM EST Sun Mar 01 2026 Valid 12Z Sun Mar 01 2026 - 12Z Tue Mar 03 2026 ...Wet weather and a light wintry mix to spread from the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley today through the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic early this week... ...Storm system will bring expanding chances for lower elevation showers and thunderstorms and higher elevation snow from the Paciifc Northwest to the central Rockies... ...Record warmth across the Southwest to southern Plains continues while Arctic air filters southward across the northern tier behind a strong cold front... A strong cold front pushing across the Northeast early this morning stretching westward across the Ohio Valley and into the southern Plains will remain important to the short range forecast as the clash of two separate air-masses leads to unsettled weather. Light snow is expected to push across the Northeast this morning along this frontal boundary before precipitation refocuses north of this boundary over the central U.S. this afternoon. A mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow is expected to expand across the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley tonight. This wintry mix is then forecast to quickly move eastward across the Ohio Valley overnight into Monday and linger across the central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic early Tuesday morning, where subfreezing temperatures remain locked in place due to pronounced cold-air damming along and just east of the elevated terrain. The primary weather hazards associated with this precipitation are forecast to be associated with light snow and freezing rain, which could lead to periods of slippery travel. Meanwhile, a separate storm system tracking across the Intermountain West is forecast to bring low-elevation showers and mountain snow to parts of northern California, Oregon, and the Great Basin through Monday before focusing light-to-moderate precipitation across the central Rockies on Tuesday. A few thunderstorms are also for these areas as well. In the Pacific Northwest, tranquil conditions largely prevail until unsettled weather returns by late Tuesday with additional mountain snow and low-elevation rainfall. Record-breaking warmth kicks off the month of March and meteorological spring across the Southwest today as well above average high temperatures soar into the mid-90s, with highs into the 80s reaching into the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. While the summer-like warmth wanes across the Southwest early this week, above average temperatures are expected to become more widespread across the Great Plains and Ohio/Mississippi Valley by Tuesday. Additionally, numerous daily record highs are forecast across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday as high temperatures rise into the mid-to-upper 80s. Conversely, below average temperatures and arctic cold are forecast to be located north of the aforementioned cold front through Monday across the northern Plains, Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, and Northeast. Here, high temperatures are forecast to struggle to rise out of the teens during the daytime hours, with low temperatures dipping below zero for some locations. Fortunately, this arctic blast is expected to be short-lived as temperatures return to near-average values by Wednesday. Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$