Area Hydrologic Discussion
— Latest
Threat
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Life-threatening flooding impacts and catastrophic WHERE: South-central Texas (including portions of the Hill Country) WHEN: Through this afternoon
Rainfall & Conditions
QPF: Additional 4 - 8", locally higher (HRRR) QPE: 6 - 10" , locally 16" (24 hr MRMS) Rain Rates: 2 - 3"/hr (HRRR) Soil Moisture: Saturated (NASA SPoRT) Streamflows: Above normal to high (Observed)
Discussion
Continued widespread, life-threatening flash and urban flooding impacts, along with catastrophic river flooding, are expected through this afternoon due to persistent, very heavy rainfall. Soils are completely saturated, and the basins are unlikely to handle any additional precipitation. The forecast rainfall is projected to fall slightly north of where the heaviest rain fell yesterday, which will cause rivers and streams to experience multiple crests. This can create a false sense of security, as rivers are likely to experience a brief recession before the next flood wave makes its way downstream. The same applies to arroyos, where channels can quickly fill and respond to rainfall in upstream headwaters. Flash flooding also remains a major concern for today; as repeated heavy rainfall continues to train over the same basins, widespread standing water in urban areas, impassable low-water crossings, and severe street flooding are likely.
The National Water Model Short Range Forecast continues to highlight south-central Texas and portions of the Texas Hill Country with high probabilities of rapid-onset flooding. Small stream flooding is ongoing and expected to continue through today, with magnitudes consistently showing 4 - 2% annual exceedance probabilities that peak over the next 4 - 14 hours. These factors, combined with very high unit discharge values, suggest that this threat is unlikely to diminish until the conclusion of the next wave of rainfall. Confidence remains high regarding the overall magnitude and extent of the forecast flooding impacts to the region. Subsequent Area Hydrologic Discussions are likely as this event continues to evolve throughout the day.
Addressed To
WFO: SJT, EWX RFC: FWR, WPC
000 AGUS74 KWCO 161317 AHDNWC Area Hydrological Discussion #148 - EXPERIMENTAL NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL 811 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Life-threatening flooding impacts and catastrophic river flooding continues WHERE: South-central Texas (including portions of the Hill Country) WHEN: Through this afternoon FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS... QPF: Additional 4 - 8", locally higher (HRRR) QPE: 6 - 10" , locally 16" (24 hr MRMS) Rain Rates: 2 - 3"/hr (HRRR) Soil Moisture: Saturated (NASA SPoRT) Streamflows: Above normal to high (Observed) DISCUSSION... Continued widespread, life-threatening flash and urban flooding impacts, along with catastrophic river flooding, are expected through this afternoon due to persistent, very heavy rainfall. Soils are completely saturated, and the basins are unlikely to handle any additional precipitation. The forecast rainfall is projected to fall slightly north of where the heaviest rain fell yesterday, which will cause rivers and streams to experience multiple crests. This can create a false sense of security, as rivers are likely to experience a brief recession before the next flood wave makes its way downstream. The same applies to arroyos, where channels can quickly fill and respond to rainfall in upstream headwaters. Flash flooding also remains a major concern for today; as repeated heavy rainfall continues to train over the same basins, widespread standing water in urban areas, impassable low-water crossings, and severe street flooding are likely. The National Water Model Short Range Forecast continues to highlight south-central Texas and portions of the Texas Hill Country with high probabilities of rapid-onset flooding. Small stream flooding is ongoing and expected to continue through today, with magnitudes consistently showing 4 - 2% annual exceedance probabilities that peak over the next 4 - 14 hours. These factors, combined with very high unit discharge values, suggest that this threat is unlikely to diminish until the conclusion of the next wave of rainfall. Confidence remains high regarding the overall magnitude and extent of the forecast flooding impacts to the region. Subsequent Area Hydrologic Discussions are likely as this event continues to evolve throughout the day. GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION: weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd Additional National Water Center products are available at: weather.gov/owp/operations //JAC ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX ATTN...RFC...FWR...WPC