Area Hydrologic Discussion
— Latest
Threat
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Life-threatening flooding impacts and catastrophic WHERE: South-Central Texas WHEN: Through this evening
Rainfall & Conditions
QPF: Additional 5 - 10", locally higher (HRRR, WPC) QPE: 4 - 12" (24 hr MRMS) Rain Rates: 2 - 4"/hr (WPC) Soil Moisture: Nearing saturation to saturated (NASA SPoRT) Streamflows: Above normal (Observed)
Discussion
Widespread life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with potentially catastrophic river flooding will persist this afternoon and evening across portions of the Area of Concern (AOC) due to continued slow-moving convection across the region. Recent rounds of heavy rainfall has led to increased soil saturation and above normal streamflows; with storms expected to continue into the evening, any additional rainfall will likely result in highly efficient runoff, quickly overwhelming already elevated streamflows and potentially exacerbating flooding impacts across the region. Given localized rainfall rates may exceed 4"/hr, considerable to catastrophic river flooding is possible across the AOC.
The HRRR-forced short-range forecast (SRF) of the National Water Model (NWM) has consistently indicated the potential for rapid-onset and significant flooding over the region with widespread ROF probabilities between 25 and 50% and unit discharge values generally ranging from 400 - 800 cfs/sq mi (isolated areas from 800 - 1000+ cfs/sq mi are possible). Extreme caution should be taken given the possibility for rapid intensification of flooding impacts with very little to no warning.
Addressed To
WFO: MAF, SJT, FWD, EWX, CRP RFC: FWR, WPC
000 AGUS74 KWCO 151917 AHDNWC Area Hydrological Discussion #146 - EXPERIMENTAL NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL 205 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Life-threatening flooding impacts and catastrophic river flooding WHERE: South-Central Texas WHEN: Through this evening FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS... QPF: Additional 5 - 10", locally higher (HRRR, WPC) QPE: 4 - 12" (24 hr MRMS) Rain Rates: 2 - 4"/hr (WPC) Soil Moisture: Nearing saturation to saturated (NASA SPoRT) Streamflows: Above normal (Observed) DISCUSSION... Widespread life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with potentially catastrophic river flooding will persist this afternoon and evening across portions of the Area of Concern (AOC) due to continued slow-moving convection across the region. Recent rounds of heavy rainfall has led to increased soil saturation and above normal streamflows; with storms expected to continue into the evening, any additional rainfall will likely result in highly efficient runoff, quickly overwhelming already elevated streamflows and potentially exacerbating flooding impacts across the region. Given localized rainfall rates may exceed 4"/hr, considerable to catastrophic river flooding is possible across the AOC. The HRRR-forced short-range forecast (SRF) of the National Water Model (NWM) has consistently indicated the potential for rapid-onset and significant flooding over the region with widespread ROF probabilities between 25 and 50% and unit discharge values generally ranging from 400 - 800 cfs/sq mi (isolated areas from 800 - 1000+ cfs/sq mi are possible). Extreme caution should be taken given the possibility for rapid intensification of flooding impacts with very little to no warning. GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION: weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd Additional National Water Center products are available at: weather.gov/owp/operations //Jackson/Bliss ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...FWD...EWX...CRP ATTN...RFC...FWR...WPC