Area Hydrologic Discussion
— Latest
Threat
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Life-threatening, locally catastrophic flooding WHERE: South-Central Texas WHEN: Through this morning
Rainfall & Conditions
QPF: Additional 2 - 5", locally 8" (HRRR, WPC) Rain Rates: 2 - 3"/hr (WPC) Soil Moisture: Nearing saturation (NASA SPoRT) Streamflows: Above normal (Observed)
Discussion
The potential for life-threatening and locally catastrophic flash flooding will continue this morning across portions of south-central Texas as slow-moving convection continues to increase over the region. Recent rainfall (3 - 5" up to 10", MRMS 24 hr) has resulted in soil becoming saturated and above normal local streams over the area, which storms are forecast to move over again this morning. This will result in immediate runoff, leading to rapidly increasing streamflows and flash flooding. Given localized rainfall rates exceeding 3" / hr, considerable to locally catastrophic flooding is possible.
The HRRR-forced short-range forecast of the NWM has consistently indicated the potential for rapid-onset and significant flooding over the region with widespread ROF probabilities between 25 and 50% and unit discharge values generally around 100 cfs/sqmi. Additionally, there are scattered unit discharge signals within the area of concern exceeding 500 cfs/sqmi, increasing confidence in at least considerable flood impacts within the region.
Addressed To
WFO: MAF, SJT, EWX, CRP RFC: FWR, WPC
000 AGUS74 KWCO 151145 AHDNWC Area Hydrological Discussion #145 - EXPERIMENTAL NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL 630 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Life-threatening, locally catastrophic flooding impacts WHERE: South-Central Texas WHEN: Through this morning FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS: QPF: Additional 2 - 5", locally 8" (HRRR, WPC) Rain Rates: 2 - 3"/hr (WPC) Soil Moisture: Nearing saturation (NASA SPoRT) Streamflows: Above normal (Observed) DISCUSSION: The potential for life-threatening and locally catastrophic flash flooding will continue this morning across portions of south-central Texas as slow-moving convection continues to increase over the region. Recent rainfall (3 - 5" up to 10", MRMS 24 hr) has resulted in soil becoming saturated and above normal local streams over the area, which storms are forecast to move over again this morning. This will result in immediate runoff, leading to rapidly increasing streamflows and flash flooding. Given localized rainfall rates exceeding 3" / hr, considerable to locally catastrophic flooding is possible. The HRRR-forced short-range forecast of the NWM has consistently indicated the potential for rapid-onset and significant flooding over the region with widespread ROF probabilities between 25 and 50% and unit discharge values generally around 100 cfs/sqmi. Additionally, there are scattered unit discharge signals within the area of concern exceeding 500 cfs/sqmi, increasing confidence in at least considerable flood impacts within the region. GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION: weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd Additional National Water Center products are available at: weather.gov/owp/operations //GKendrick ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX...CRP ATTN...RFC...FWR...WPC