Area Hydrologic Discussion
— Latest
Threat
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Life-threatening flooding impacts and catastrophic WHERE: South-central Texas (including portions of the Hill Country) WHEN: Through this evening
Rainfall & Conditions
QPF: Additional 1 - 3", locally higher (WPC) QPE: 1 - 6 , locally 14" (24 hr MRMS) Rain Rates: 2 - 3"/hr (HRRR) Soil Moisture: Saturated (NASA SPoRT) Streamflows: Above normal to high (Observed)
Discussion
Additional rainfall is expected through this evening from South-central Texas through the Hill Country, and will bring the potential for additional life-threatening flash flooding and continued catastrophic river flooding. The bulk of this next round of rainfall will fall after the expiration of this Area Hydrologic Discussion (AHD), and a follow up AHD to cover the overnight flood threat can be expected. The unprecedented rainfall has completely saturated soils in the southern half of the area of concern. On the other hand, the northern extent has received up to 4" of rainfall in the last 72 hours, but soils are likely not as thoroughly saturated as they are further south. Similarly, streamflows are above normal in the northern extent, but still leave some room for in-channel storage capacity. Expect additional rainfall this afternoon in the Hill Country and along the International Border to cause renewed rises on streams and rivers and exacerbate the ongoing flash flood threat, while further north the rain will act more to prime the soils ahead of the heavier rain in the overnight hours.
The National Water Model Short Range Forecast continues to highlight the ongoing small stream flooding in south-central Texas with 10 - 2% annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs), and is signaling a robust increase in the flood threat in the San Angelo, Brady, and Brownville area where new widespread rises in exceedance of the 10 - 2% AEP thresholds can be found. Notably, many of these peaks are outside of the range of this AHD's valid time, and will be covered by the next issuance around 1:30z (8:30pm CDT).
Addressed To
WFO: SJT, FWD, EWX RFC: FWR, WPC
000 AGUS74 KWCO 162013 AHDNWC Area Hydrological Discussion #149 - EXPERIMENTAL NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL 306 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Life-threatening flooding impacts and catastrophic river flooding continues WHERE: South-central Texas (including portions of the Hill Country) WHEN: Through this evening FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS... QPF: Additional 1 - 3", locally higher (WPC) QPE: 1 - 6 , locally 14" (24 hr MRMS) Rain Rates: 2 - 3"/hr (HRRR) Soil Moisture: Saturated (NASA SPoRT) Streamflows: Above normal to high (Observed) DISCUSSION... Additional rainfall is expected through this evening from South-central Texas through the Hill Country, and will bring the potential for additional life-threatening flash flooding and continued catastrophic river flooding. The bulk of this next round of rainfall will fall after the expiration of this Area Hydrologic Discussion (AHD), and a follow up AHD to cover the overnight flood threat can be expected. The unprecedented rainfall has completely saturated soils in the southern half of the area of concern. On the other hand, the northern extent has received up to 4" of rainfall in the last 72 hours, but soils are likely not as thoroughly saturated as they are further south. Similarly, streamflows are above normal in the northern extent, but still leave some room for in-channel storage capacity. Expect additional rainfall this afternoon in the Hill Country and along the International Border to cause renewed rises on streams and rivers and exacerbate the ongoing flash flood threat, while further north the rain will act more to prime the soils ahead of the heavier rain in the overnight hours. The National Water Model Short Range Forecast continues to highlight the ongoing small stream flooding in south-central Texas with 10 - 2% annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs), and is signaling a robust increase in the flood threat in the San Angelo, Brady, and Brownville area where new widespread rises in exceedance of the 10 - 2% AEP thresholds can be found. Notably, many of these peaks are outside of the range of this AHD's valid time, and will be covered by the next issuance around 1:30z (8:30pm CDT). GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION: weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd Additional National Water Center products are available at: weather.gov/owp/operations //Bliss ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD...EWX ATTN...RFC...FWR...WPC