Area Hydrologic Discussion
— Latest
Office:
KWCO
Issued:
Jul 17, 2026 at 3:48 PM CDT
AHD
Threat
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Flash and small stream flooding possible WHERE: Portions of south-central and west Texas WHEN: Through this afternoon
Rainfall & Conditions
QPF: 0.5 - 1" (HRRR) QPE: 3 - 5", locally higher (12 hr MRMS) Soil Moisture: Saturated (NASA SPoRT) Streamflows: Elevated (NWM)
Discussion
Heavy rainfall has resulted in flooding impacts across the region with routed flows still impacting the area. While rainfall is starting to diminish, the area remains saturated and susceptible to any rainfall that materializes. The main threat will be the routed flows from all the recent heavy rainfall.
The National Water Model Short Range Forecast (SRF) is showing ongoing high magnitude flows across the Devils, Middle Colorado-Llano, Lower Pecos, San Saba, Howard Draw basins south of San Angelo (shown right). While highwater flows are ongoing, the NWM shows peak flow arrival times through the afternoon and evening as flows route downstream. This routed flow may result in additional flooding impacts.
Addressed To
WFO: MAF, SJT, EWX RFC: FWR, WPC
000 AGUS74 KWCO 172048 AHDNWC Area Hydrological Discussion #153 - EXPERIMENTAL NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL 334 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Flash and small stream flooding possible WHERE: Portions of south-central and west Texas WHEN: Through this afternoon FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS... QPF: 0.5 - 1" (HRRR) QPE: 3 - 5", locally higher (12 hr MRMS) Soil Moisture: Saturated (NASA SPoRT) Streamflows: Elevated (NWM) DISCUSSION... Heavy rainfall has resulted in flooding impacts across the region with routed flows still impacting the area. While rainfall is starting to diminish, the area remains saturated and susceptible to any rainfall that materializes. The main threat will be the routed flows from all the recent heavy rainfall. The National Water Model Short Range Forecast (SRF) is showing ongoing high magnitude flows across the Devils, Middle Colorado-Llano, Lower Pecos, San Saba, Howard Draw basins south of San Angelo (shown right). While highwater flows are ongoing, the NWM shows peak flow arrival times through the afternoon and evening as flows route downstream. This routed flow may result in additional flooding impacts. GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION: weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd Additional National Water Center products are available at: weather.gov/owp/operations //Smith ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX ATTN...RFC...FWR...WPC